the veracity of polling methods

The polls that attempt to pre­dict who vot­ers are like­ly to elect only sur­vey “like­ly vot­ers”. Who are like­ly vot­ers? Tak­en from , “like­ly vot­ers” must meet the fol­low­ing criteria:

  • Have been in his or her place of res­i­dence for at least 4 years, that is has to have been reg­is­tered to vote from the same loca­tion last time around.
  • Has to have vot­ed last time around.
  • Has to have a land-line (poll­sters are not allowed to call cellphones)
  • and be near this land-line, will­ing to pick up the phone and take a sur­vey between the hours of 8am and 7pm.


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